Everyone is in the race for AI, in particular the race for AGI, artificial general intelligence. AGI was widely viewed as science fiction only a few years ago. Now the experts think someone will build AGI in the next year or two. Even if they’re wrong, AGI is coming soon. The consequences for homo sapiens are mind-boggling. https://www.livescience.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/agi-could-now-arrive-as-early-as-2026-but-not-all-scientists-agree
Who will win the race to build AGI? There are two camps. The first are the big, rich legacy tech leaders, often running large super-profitable monopolistic services that they are leveraging into the new world of AI. They have lots of advantages. Their businesses, or monopolies, generate vast amounts of money, user data, user engagement, installed bases. Legacy monopolies always use their core original monopoly to leverage into new businesses. For example, Google built a monopoly in Search, which was legal, but used that monopoly to leverage into many other businesses, according to the US Department of Justice. The US Department of Justice is bringing an antitrust case against Google and its abuse of its Search monopoly, but it has already decided to let Google continue to leverage that monopoly into the world of AI. https://nypost.com/2025/03/07/business/feds-drop-bid-to-make-google-sell-ai-investments-in-antitrust-case/ If that’s the best the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice can do, well, I’d support the DOGE efforts to save taxpayer money and just eliminate them.
I assume they’re cracking open the Dom Perignon in Mountain View. The antitrust regulators in DC will let Google proceed with its old playbook. Maybe they’ll force Google to divest one of its portfolio of multiple monopolies, like Chrome. Big deal, that’s like pruning a branch off a tree. I imagine the company will howl with indignation, even at that low-impact antitrust remedy, but that’s like a dramatic husky howling at the vet.
On the other hand, maybe the old legacy tech world won’t win the AGI race. Maybe smarts, innovation, and agility will win. Maybe small companies and research labs will win. Maybe the future isn’t in the mega-model of AI, based on vast amounts of data, vast amounts of GPUs, vast amounts of money, electricity, and users. Maybe smaller models will win, figuring out how to do things on the cheap. The low-cost Chinese DeepSeek success, if it’s true, might be a window into that future.
In privacy terms, it’s not clear which model is better. The mega-model is based on vast amounts of data processing, limited to a few mega-companies. The size of the processing may be troubling, but it’s somewhat easier to hold big companies to account for responsible data processing. If the smaller models prevail, there will be a proliferation of AI processing across thousands, or maybe millions of actors. Good luck trying to ensure privacy rights in that scenario.
What do I think?: I think the smaller models will proliferate, eventually, after an initial lead by the big models. Fasten your seatbelt, we’re entering a zone of turbulence.
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